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PROWLING DRAGON MAY BECOME UNFRIENDLY – SOON!
Despite the present show of bonhomie, it should not be forgotten that China has not slowed its aggressive strategies. The military budget in China is huge, even considering only the known size. The liberal support to Pakistan and the high priority China Pakistan Economic Corridor is part of a grand design to have access around India. The friendly overtones to Nepal and offers to build first class transport link with Kathmandu are indicators of the grand design.
Within the next 5 to 10 years the Chinese economic and military might will be unparallel, barring only the USA. It would be palpable for China to encourage Pakistan to provoke a war to keep India busy and at the same time invade and overrun Arunachal Pradesh. Obviously, it is very unlikely in such a scenario that India will be able to retain all its limbs. China is also now giving high priority to diverting Brahmaputra river water by building a dam at the ‘bend’ just before the ‘tsangpo’ or Brahmaputra enters India. North east India will be in crisis in the near future arising from river water diversion and potentially from planned flooding as part of a military action. India is in a weaker bargaining position in almost every way. It is running huge current account deficit with China and this trend will continue as there is no way India can compensate by exporting more to China at the coming years.
Chinese agenda of dominating not only South or South East Asia but entire Asia will not change. India is the only potential obstacle in this Chinese vision. Chinese investment everywhere in the world is a component of its political strategy and is therefore state supported. No wonder, in spite of so much hype since last one year on Chinese investment promises, nothing much has materialized on the ground.